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STRIKEFORCE “FEDOR VS. HENDERSON” PREVIEW: Penick’s breakdown and predictions for Showtime event from Illinois

Posted on Jul 31, 2011

By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

Strikeforce returns to Showtime on Saturday night from the Sears Centre in Hoffman Estates, Ill., and they’ve got one hell of a fight card on tap for fans. Though Fedor Emelianenko has lost his last two fights, he is still the greatest heavyweight fighter the sport has seen thus far. He’s reaching the end of his rope, but it may not be over just yet. In taking on a fellow longtime veteran and legend in his own right in Dan Henderson, this is a fight that is simply a fantastic meeting between two greats in this sport. Throw in a great women’s title fight, a middleweight meeting between the two previous title challengers and a pair of welterweight fights sure to deliver fireworks, and this is a great card. Here’s what’s on tap for the Showtime broadcast:

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Dan Henderson (Heavyweight)

Despite suffering two straight losses, Fedor Emelianenko enters this fight as the realistic favorite. He’s got a very significant size advantage, his grappling game matches up well with Henderson’s, as does his striking game, and he’s the better submission fighter as well.

But Henderson enters the fight off of two straight knockout losses and finishes in three of his last four. Those have come against a middleweight and a couple of light heavyweights, but all the same, Henderson is riding one of the best runs of his career.

There are certainly reasons to believe both fighters can win this fight. Henderson, if he employs the right game plan, can absolutely put Emelianenko on his back and utilize his ground and pound game while defending submission attempts to earn a decision. With the punishment Fedor absorbed in his fights against Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva and Brett Rogers, it’s also reasonable to see Henderson being able to drop him with his big overhand right.

On the other side, if Henderson takes Emelianenko down, he very likely could trap Henderson in a submission. If Henderson fails to take Fedor down, Fedor could batter Henderson on the feet himself. Henderson has never been stopped by strikes, so that would more than likely lead to a decision win for “The Last Emperor.”

Regardless of the size difference, this is a very close fight that has a number of possible outcomes. It comes down to which finish you think might be the most realistic, and it comes down to a coin flip for me. I can see just about any outcome happening, save Henderson being knocked out and Emelianenko being submitted, but at the end of the day I don’t think Fedor’s done just yet.

PREDICTION: Emelianenko via submission in the second round

Marloes Coenen vs. Meisha Tate (Women’s 135 lb. Championship)

This is a really good women’s matchup. Coenen has the advantage coming in with it being a five round fight and Tate having been out of action since last August, but that doesn’t mean Tate’s not a very dangerous title challenger.

This is a fight in which Coenen will be put on her back quite often, as Tate is a very good wrestler with the ability to pass and land strikes on the ground. That said, Coenen is comfortable in that position for the most part, as her submission skills allow her to continuously attack and more often than not she’s able to catch her opponent.

In 19 victories, Coenen has only reached the judges scorecards twice, and only two other fights of hers have gone the distance. With 25 minutes to work with, Tate is going to need to avoid being submitted and/or she’s going to need to find a way to stop Coenen, which is not something that’s easily done.

Tate can strike well enough with Coenen, and I think she’ll be comfortable enough to exchange with her on their feet, but the key for her in this fight will be not only getting the defending Champion to the ground but finishing her with strikes. She’s going to need to be aggressive, and she’s going to need to be wary of what Coenen is doing on the ground. If she can do that, she may just walk out with the title around her waist.

This is a really, really tough fight to call, because while Tate has all the tools to defeat Coenen, 25 minutes is a really long time for Coenen to be given to look for submissions. This is another pick I’m not entirely confident in, but I can see Tate being able to avoid the submissions and taking more rounds to pull off her own upset.

PREDICTION: Tate via unanimous decision

Robbie Lawler vs. Tim Kennedy (Middleweight)

Another very good matchup on this card. We’ve got Lawler returning to action for the first time since losing to Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza in January, while Kennedy makes a quick turn around from a March win that was his own bounce back from a loss to Souza.

Lawler’s been consistent in his inconsistency over his last six fights, alternating wins and losses dating back to EliteXC in 2008. That said, he hasn’t lost consecutive fights since 2004, and despite some poor showings in the last few years he remains as dangerous as ever at 29.

Kennedy is a supremely talented fighter with some decent striking, a fairly good wrestling game and a really good submission game. If he can put Lawler on his back and work his grappling game he absolutely can take this fight.

The problem for him comes if he can’t get Lawler down. Lawler’s got some good takedown defense, and it took Souza until the third round of their fight to really take over before locking in the submission in January. For Kennedy, if he is relegated to striking with Lawler because he can’t get him down, that’s going to mean a long night.

Kennedy is tough, though, and his only non-decision loss was due to cuts in his debut fight over a decade ago. I think he’ll be able to take what Lawler throws at him, eventually get the fight to the ground and lock in the submission.

PREDICTION: Kennedy via submission in the second round

Paul Daley vs. Tyron Woodley (Welterweight)

This classic wrestler vs. striker matchup pits an established veteran with wins and losses against some of the top names in the sport against an up and coming welterweight taking a big leap up in competition.

Even though Daley’s takedown defense has been suspect at best throughout his career, Woodley may not realize what he’s coming up against in terms of the striking game. In order to take Daley down, Woodley’s going to need to engage and get in close, and that makes him a ripe target for the Brit.

Woodley is capable of grinding out a couple of rounds in this fight, but Daley has such an advantage in the striking department, and Woodley isn’t on the level of fighters like Josh Koscheck and Jake Shields who have been able to control Daley on the ground. Ultimately, the experience edge and jump up in competition works in Daley’s favor, and I see him giving Woodley a rude welcome to the top end of the division.

PREDICTION: Daley via TKO in the first round

Scott Smith vs. Tarec Saffiedine (Welterweight)

It might be impossible to dislike Scott Smith, which makes it hard to see him step into the cage again after the amount of punishment he’s taken just in the last three years, let alone the rest of his career.

Saffiedine may only have one knockout on his record, but it was a hell of a knockout over Nate Moore last year, and if he hits Smith in the body or the head with that type of force, it’s going to be another rough night for the Smith family.

At the same time, despite being finished a number of times, it takes a lot to put Smith away. He’s got a scary and ridiculous ability to fight through strikes that would finish most fighters, and he’s got a number of insane come from behind victories that attest to that. But when he’s seriously hurt in each of his last five fights, even though he’s come back to win two of them, it makes the prospect of this fight scary.

Ultimately, Saffiedine is more than capable of setting the pace, hurting Smith and keeping him on the defensive. I don’t know that he’s got the killer instinct necessarily to finish Smith before Smith can recover, but I think he’ll be able to do more than enough damage through three rounds to take the fight.

PREDICTION: Saffiedine via unanimous decision

Daniel Acacio Bernard AckahÂ Terrance Aflague Yoshihiro AkiyamaÂ Gilbert AldanaÂ

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